We start by determining that Winter starts on December 21st at 1204 UTC. The immediately-prior New Moon is on November 27th at 11:56 am EST.
Sunset for that day (New Moon day) is at 4:58 pm EST and moonset is 4:37 pm EST.
Sunset for the immediately following day (November 28th, 2008) is at 4:58 pm EST and moonset is at 5:23 pm EST. Approximately 1% of the moon's visible disk will be illuminated, so this isn't likely to be Durin's Day.
Sunset for November 29th is 4:58 pm EST and moonset is at 6:16 pm EST with 4% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Moonwatch predicts that it will be first visible in northeast Ohio on either 11/28 (not likely: pdf) or 11/29 (almost certainly: pdf).
Please note that we are using a modern interpretation of when Autumn takes place (between the September Equinox and the December Solstice), not by using the solar markers at the center of the seasons.
